Hurricane Nicole

Forecast Advisory 31



092
WTNT25 KNHC 112036
TCMAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
2100 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 66.4W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 180SE 120SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 66.4W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.0N 66.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.8N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N 64.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 38.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 41.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 41.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 66.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN