Hurricane Otto

Forecast Advisory 3

---

564
WTNT21 KNHC 211755
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OTTO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1800 UTC MON NOV 21 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND THE ISLANDS OF SAN
ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTTO...SINCE A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 79.3W AT 21/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 79.3W AT 21/1800Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 79.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 11.4N 79.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.3N 79.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 11.2N 80.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 11.1N 81.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.1N 82.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 11.1N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 11.0N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH