Hurricane Irma

Forecast Advisory 4

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109
WTNT21 KNHC 310844
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 32.9W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 32.9W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 32.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 34.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 36.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 37.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.2N 40.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 16.7N 49.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 32.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH