Hurricane Irma

Forecast Advisory 11

---

696
WTNT21 KNHC 020241
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 40.5W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 40.5W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 39.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 42.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.5N 44.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.9N 46.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.3N 49.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.8N 53.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 20.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 40.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY