Hurricane Irma

Forecast Advisory 22

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622
WTNT21 KNHC 042036
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC MON SEP 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND
NEVIS
* SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... HAITI... THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 54.4W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 54.4W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 53.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.6N 56.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.8N 61.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.7N 64.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.4N 69.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 74.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 54.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN