Hurricane Irma

Forecast Advisory 23

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377
WTNT21 KNHC 050234
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
0300 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND
NEVIS
* SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... HAITI... THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS... CUBA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 55.6W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 150SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 55.6W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 55.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.9N 57.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 55.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH