Hurricane Irma

Forecast Advisory 51



662
WTNT21 KNHC 112035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNINGS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD... FROM
THE AUCILLA RIVER WESTWARD... AND FROM CLEARWATER BEACH
SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY... HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND IS DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* NORTH OF CLEARWATER BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......360NE 230SE 150SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 390SE 390SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.8N 88.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




755
WTNT22 KNHC 112051
TCMAT2

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 69.2W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 69.2W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.2N 69.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 67.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.3N 66.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.4N 68.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 26.0N 71.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 28.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 69.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD