Hurricane Jose

Forecast Advisory 44

---

684
WTNT24 KNHC 160847
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 32.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 32.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 31.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.6N 33.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.6N 34.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.7N 35.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.3N 37.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.2N 41.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 32.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





064
WTNT22 KNHC 160854
TCMAT2

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 71.8W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 71.8W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 71.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N 72.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.9N 72.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 190SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 39.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 41.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 71.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY