Hurricane Jose
Forecast Advisory 59
142
WTNT25 KNHC 200243
TCMAT5
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 64.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 909 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 64.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 64.3W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N 68.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.9N 69.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.2N 72.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 64.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
031
WTNT22 KNHC 200246
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 70.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 75SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 190SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 70.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 71.1W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 38.8N 69.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 180SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.6N 68.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 180SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.7N 67.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 180SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.5N 67.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 38.7N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 38.5N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.5N 70.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 70.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
