Hurricane Lee

Forecast Advisory 5

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857
WTNT22 KNHC 160250
TCMAT2

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 71.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 71.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 70.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.2N 72.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.6N 72.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.6N 71.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 41.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 71.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY





266
WTNT24 KNHC 160251
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.8N 31.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.9N 33.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.0N 34.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.3N 35.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 43.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 30.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN