Hurricane Lee

Forecast Advisory 10

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467
WTNT25 KNHC 170847
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA TO A HURRICANE WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE BRITISH AND U. S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 54.9W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 54.9W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 54.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 54.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





962
WTNT22 KNHC 170848
TCMAT2

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 71.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 160SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 180SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 71.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.0N 71.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 34.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 35.6N 71.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.6N 70.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...230NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 39.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 71.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





100
WTNT24 KNHC 170851
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 35.4W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 35.4W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 35.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.1N 36.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.4N 37.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.2N 39.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 41.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.1N 44.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 48.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.3N 52.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 35.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS