Hurricane Lee

Forecast Advisory 19

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982
WTNT25 KNHC 230235
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MARIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 71.7W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 120SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 71.7W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 71.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 72.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.5N 72.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.7N 72.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.7N 72.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 33.5N 72.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 35.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 71.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





453
WTNT24 KNHC 230251
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 49.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 49.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 32.2N 48.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.5N 47.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 32.4N 46.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.1N 45.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.3N 43.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 29.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY