Hurricane Lee

Forecast Advisory 38

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755
WTNT25 KNHC 271447
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC WED SEP 27 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF OCRACOKE
INLET.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF OCRACOKE INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO DUCK

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 72.6W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 72.6W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 72.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.1N 72.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.7N 67.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.7N 62.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 200SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 42.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 110SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 240SE 210SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 50.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 72.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





548
WTNT24 KNHC 271448
TCMAT4

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
1500 UTC WED SEP 27 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 56.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 56.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 56.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.4N 57.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.0N 57.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 46.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 140SE 140SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 56.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE