Hurricane Maria
Forecast Advisory 15
563
WTNT25 KNHC 192042
TCMAT5
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA.
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR DOMINICA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
* CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA
* GUADELOUPE
* WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA
* ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 64.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 916 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 64.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 63.6W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 65.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 66.7W...OVER PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.3N 68.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.2N 69.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 64.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
895
WTNT22 KNHC 192047
TCMAT2
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM HULL
SOUTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH AND ALSO WEST OF WOODS HOLE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 71.3W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 70SE 90SW 130NW.
34 KT.......270NE 180SE 190SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 71.3W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 71.5W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.2N 70.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 70SE 90SW 130NW.
34 KT...230NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.2N 69.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 70SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 180SW 170NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.7N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.0N 67.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 38.6N 68.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 71.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
