Hurricane Nate

Forecast Advisory 5

---

220
WTNT21 KNHC 051446
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC THU OCT 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS FROM
PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 83.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 83.7W AT 05/1500Z...INLAND
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 85.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 86.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 88.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 41.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 83.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN