Hurricane Nate

Forecast Advisory 12

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283
WTNT21 KNHC 070857
TCMAT1

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
0900 UTC SAT OCT 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF CUBA AND MEXICO HAVE DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.0W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.0W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.3N 88.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.4N 88.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.8N 86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.0N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.0N 70.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 87.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

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FORECASTER AVILA