Hurricane Nate

Forecast Advisory 14

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995
WTNT21 KNHC 072050
TCMAT1

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM WEST OF MORGAN
CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 89.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 89.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.8N 89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.1N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.9N 83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.1N 77.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 89.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN