Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 15

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752
WTNT22 KNHC 122036
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 35.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 35.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 34.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.9N 32.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 35.0N 25.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.6N 17.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 53.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 62.5N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 35.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY