Hurricane Dorian

Forecast Advisory 54

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173
WTNT23 KNHC 062033
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 39.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 39.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 39.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.3N 41.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.8N 44.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.2N 47.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.9N 48.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 38.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 44.0N 38.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





020
WTNT25 KNHC 062056
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BOAT HARBOUR TO TRITON.

ALL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC
SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALTER PATH NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO AVONPORT

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO HUBBARDS
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO INDIAN
HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO HUBBARDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC
* PARSON'S POND TO TRITON
* INDIAN HARBOUR TO STONE'S COVE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 72.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 400SE 300SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 72.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 73.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.1N 69.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.9N 65.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 47.1N 61.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.6N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 55.5N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 270SE 270SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 72.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN