Hurricane Humberto

Forecast Advisory 27

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940
WTNT25 KNHC 190850
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 53.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 53.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 52.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 55.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 57.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 63.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 53.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





772
WTNT24 KNHC 190852
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 62.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 170SE 160SW 350NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 900SW 630NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 62.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 62.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 60.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 170SE 160SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.9N 58.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 160SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.8N 57.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 180SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.2N 53.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 46.3N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 160SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 62.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS