Hurricane Jerry

Forecast Advisory 1

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962
WTNT25 KNHC 171446
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 44.9W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 44.9W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 44.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





562
WTNT24 KNHC 171453
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 73.5W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 73.5W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 73.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.8N 69.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.1N 66.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.3N 62.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.6N 58.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 43.0N 52.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 44.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 73.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART