Hurricane Jerry
Forecast Advisory 7
446
WTNT25 KNHC 190239
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.2W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.4N 67.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 70.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 51.8W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
450
WTNT24 KNHC 190253
TCMAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 63.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 150SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 780SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 63.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 65.0W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.8N 61.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 160SW 250NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.5N 59.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N 58.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.4N 56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 45.0N 41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 50.0N 25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 63.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 19/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
