Hurricane Jerry
Forecast Advisory 10
203
WTNT24 KNHC 192032
TCMAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 58.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT.......330NE 240SE 180SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 960SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 58.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 59.3W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 40.4N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 270NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 42.8N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 44.6N 51.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 200SE 180SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 45.6N 44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 200SE 180SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 58.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
832
WTNT25 KNHC 192040
TCMAT5
HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 55.2W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 55.8W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
