Hurricane Jerry

Forecast Advisory 11

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909
WTNT25 KNHC 200241
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 56.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 59.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 64.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 68.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 67.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 57.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





484
WTNT24 KNHC 200248
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 58.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT.......330NE 240SE 180SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 540SE 995SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 58.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 58.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 41.8N 56.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 44.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 45.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 200SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 46.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 200SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 58.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH