Hurricane Jerry

Forecast Advisory 13

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045
WTNT25 KNHC 201456
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 60.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 60.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 59.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 60.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE