Hurricane Jerry

Forecast Advisory 17

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744
WTNT25 KNHC 211452
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 65.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 65.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 64.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N 66.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 67.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.8N 67.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.6N 66.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 34.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 38.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 65.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY