Hurricane Jerry

Forecast Advisory 18

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795
WTNT25 KNHC 212049
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 65.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.8N 67.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.0N 67.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 35.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 65.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY