Tropical Storm Karen

Forecast Advisory 16

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666
WTNT22 KNHC 260233
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.6W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.6W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.3N 60.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.6N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





257
WTNT23 KNHC 260234
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 38.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 280SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 38.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 37.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 38.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO