Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 9

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388
WTNT23 KNHC 250234
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 32.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 20SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 32.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 31.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 20SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.2N 37.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.1N 39.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.4N 40.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.9N 43.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 100SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 32.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO





315
WTNT22 KNHC 250237
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 65.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 65.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 65.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.8N 64.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.2N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.8N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 65.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





522
WTNT25 KNHC 250239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 68.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 68.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN