Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 14

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484
WTNT22 KNHC 260831
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 63.5W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 63.5W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.0N 60.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.9N 60.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 27.0N 65.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 26.8N 67.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 63.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





865
WTNT23 KNHC 260840
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 39.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 39.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 39.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY