Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 16

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499
WTNT23 KNHC 261452
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 120SE 80SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 41.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.2N 43.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 43.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.2N 43.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 40.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





790
WTNT22 KNHC 261453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 63.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 63.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.6N 62.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.1N 61.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.0N 60.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.8N 60.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 27.1N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 63.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG