Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 19

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505
WTNT22 KNHC 270844
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 61.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 61.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.8N 60.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.1N 59.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.3N 60.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.3N 61.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 61.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY





982
WTNT23 KNHC 270850
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 41.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 42.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.8N 43.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.1N 43.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.7N 41.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.3N 37.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 40.0N 30.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 42.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY