Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 33

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196
WTNT23 KNHC 301455
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...
AND TERCEIRA. THE INSTITUTE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EASTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND
SANTA MARIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 42.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 390SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 42.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.7N 41.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 38.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.1N 34.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 85SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 43.3N 28.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 53.5N 17.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...290NE 290SE 320SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 58.2N 11.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 42.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

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FORECASTER LATTO