Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 38

---

354
WTNT23 KNHC 012033
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 35.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 540SE 540SW 720NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 35.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 36.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.6N 24.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 60NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.2N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 60NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 54.4N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 160SE 160SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 330SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 53.2N 3.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 35.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN