Hurricane Lorenzo

Public Advisory 12

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285
WTNT32 KNHC 280849
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2007

...KAREN WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST OR ABOUT 755
MILES...1215 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.1 N...49.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI




317
WTNT33 KNHC 280852
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

...LORENZO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO...

AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ
NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF
CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES...45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING
LORENZO FARTHER INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE CENTER OF
LORENZO MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...ABOUT 40
MILES...65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS LORENZO PROCEEDS
INLAND...AND THIS SMALL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL. TIDE LEVELS
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...20.6 N...97.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB