Hurricane Gustav

Public Advisory 4

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000
WTNT31 KWNH 260254
TCPAT1

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 42 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL062008
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

...FAY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ALABAMA...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA...GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

AT 1000 PM CDT...03Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST...OR JUST
NORTHEAST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI AND 130 MILES...210
KM...SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH...8 KM/HR. THE
FORECAST TRACK INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES
ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE 24 HOURS. THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 700 PM CDT

...ALABAMA...

HIGHLAND HOME 8.54
SEALE 3 ESE 7.98
CAMDEN 1.0 NNE 6.55
DAUPHIN ISLAND 6.48
WETUMPKA 6.44
EUFAULA 1.0 SSE 6.26
AUBURN 4 S 6.11
MOBILE/DOWNTOWN APT 6.06
RUTHERFORD 5.89
MONTGOMERY/MAXWELL AFB 5.53
BIRMINGHAM/MUNI APT 4.12

...FLORIDA...
MELBOURNE/WINDOVER FARMS 26.65
CAPE CANAVERAL /USAF FIELD MILL 21/ 22.83
SEBASTIAN /SCRIPPS SPACE COAST/ 22.25
PALM SHORES 1.4 W 21.44
PALM BAY 1.0 NE 21.00
VIERA 20.75
HILLIARD 5.4 NW 19.70
MELBOURNE WFO 19.62
CAPE CANAVERAL/COCOA BEACH 19.01
TALLAHASSEE/REGIONAL APT 11.93
GAINESVILLE/REGIONAL APT 8.25
NAPLES/MUNICIPAL APT 7.96
FT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD 7.12

...GEORGIA...

THOMASVILLE 27.50
COOLIDGE 3.2 SSW 12.03
NEWTON 11 SW 11.68
ELMODEL 11.08
BLAKELY 9.75
VALDOSTA/MOODY AFB 9.70
MILFORD 9.26
IRON CITY 6 NE 9.04
ALBANY 4.99
SAVANNAH/HUNTER AAF 4.43
PEACHTREE CITY/ATL WFO 2.00

...KENTUCKY...

CANTON 1.24

...LOUISIANA...

MILLERVILLE 4.35
ZACHARY 4.20
GREENWELL SPRINGS 2 SW 3.79
DENHAM SPRINGS 3.75
INNISWOLD 4 E 3.57
VIDALIA 3.30
JACKSON 3.26
RESERVE 3.20
BATON ROUGE 2.84
NEW ORLEANS/MSY 1.46
SLIDELL/WFO NEW 1.30

...MISSISSIPPI...

ACKERMAN 3 SE 6.14
STATE UNIVERSITY 4.85
GHOLSON 8 W 4.57
PASCAGOULA 4.52
TOPTON 4.37
BROOKSVILLE 2 NNE 4.21
DAMASCUS 1 SE 4.16
TOOMSUBA 5 SE 4.10
NOXAPATER 1 N 4.00
PHILADELPHIA 5 N 3.99
COLLINSVILLE 7 SE 3.79
MERIDIAN 3.66
NATCHEZ 3.38
JACKSON/WFO JAN 2.10

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
BEAUFORT 5.89
MEGGETT 1.8 W 4.97
HARDEEVILLE 13 S 4.21
WALTERBORO 2 SW 4.14
FOLLY BEACH 2.5 SW 3.96
SULLIVANS ISLAND 3.60
CHARLESTON 3.49
COLUMBIA 2.26

...TENNESSEE...
MEMPHIS 1.92
MARTIN UNIVERSITY 1.40
PULASKI 1.07

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING....WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...32.5 NORTH...88.6
WEST...MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...25 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR WEATHER.GOV FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON FAY.

HEDGE

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 32.5N 88.6W
12HR VT 26/0600Z 33.6N 88.0W
24HR VT 26/1800Z 35.0N 86.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 27/0600Z 36.5N 85.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 27/1800Z 37.8N 83.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
$$





000
WTNT32 KNHC 260258
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...GUSTAV STRENGTHENS...ALMOST A HURRICANE...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED FROM
PORT AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF BARAHONA TO SANTO DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.6 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN