Tropical Depression Sixteen
Public Advisory 4
920
WTNT31 KNHC 150839
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
...DEPRESSION HUGGING THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF GUATEMALA
AND FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES...150 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460
KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING
THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...16.0 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
948
WTNT35 KNHC 150842
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2008
...OMAR CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...
455 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN
ADDITION...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...67.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
