Hurricane Karl
Public Advisory 10
000
WTNT32 KNHC 162039
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010
...JULIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
OPEN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 41.1W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. JULIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND JULIA COULD WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT31 KNHC 162039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES IGOR...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 58.1W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF IGOR.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH...210 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM. NOAA BUOY 41044 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 70 MPH...113 KM/HR....WITH GUSTS TO 81 MPH...130 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WORSENING AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL REACH THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 162044
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
...KARL STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 93.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA
SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 977
MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
