Hurricane Tomas

Public Advisory 22

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 031448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...TOMAS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF TOMAS COULD APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND TOMAS COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN