Tropical Storm Harvey
Public Advisory 12
000
WTNT33 KNHC 212042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
...HARVEY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO BARRA
DE NAUTIA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTIA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH THE WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 212044
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
...CENTER OF IRENE NEAR ST. CROIX...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 64.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE BORDER WITH
HAITI.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
FURTHER SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER
OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE INTENSITY ON MONDAY. WEAKENING IS LIKELY LATER ON MONDAY
AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THIS EVENING...AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
