Hurricane Rafael
Public Advisory 3
338
WTNT31 KNHC 130832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012
...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 71.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. PATTY IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
709
WTNT32 KNHC 130853
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012
...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 64.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
