Hurricane Sandy
Public Advisory 12
797
WTNT34 KNHC 250846
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TONY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
500 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012
...TONY WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 38.4W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TONY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST. TONY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TONY IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
857
WTNT33 KNHC 250858
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012
...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY PREPARING TO MOVE OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 75.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 40 MI...75 KM E OF HOLGUIN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA SATELLITES AND CUBAN RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18
MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA THIS
MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND
MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS
MORNING...AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE TODAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...4 TO 7 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
