Tropical Storm Tony
Public Advisory 13
115
WTNT34 KNHC 252032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
500 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012
...TONY BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 34.0W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST. TONY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TONY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE TONY...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST BEING ISSUED BY THE
METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
946
WTNT33 KNHC 252035
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012
...SANDY NEAR CAT ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...WIND FIELD EXPANDING...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MOVE
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW LARGER IN SIZE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. CAT
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 969 MB...
28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
