Hurricane Ingrid

Public Advisory 12

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897
WTNT35 KNHC 150853
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY...
...BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
INGRID SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY LATE SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH