Hurricane Katrina

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 242025
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
2100Z WED AUG 24 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY...AND FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...
INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 77.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 77.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 77.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.9N 77.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.1N 78.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.2N 79.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.4N 83.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 28.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 77.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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