Hurricane Katrina

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 272032
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
2100Z SAT AUG 27 2005

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 85.6W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 100SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 85.6W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.9N 86.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.8N 88.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.5N 89.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.6N 90.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 38.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 43.0N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 85.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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